ast NFL season I kept losing games that “everyone” said were a lock. You know those games where every sports talk show, every gaming forum, and even your cousin’s dog is backing one side?
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It’s funny how confidence in your pick can be solid… until you scroll Twitter and see thousands of people saying the exact opposite. That moment of hesitation — it’s either your gut trying to help or your brain freaking out. Sometimes it’s hard to tell.
I’ve done the same thing for a while, especially with NBA. What helped me click into the whole strategy was reading about how sportsbooks don’t necessarily care about which team wins — they care about balancing the money on both sides. That was a mindset shift. So when I see a game where like 85% of bets are on one side but the line isn’t moving — or worse, it moves the other way — that’s a big red flag. I track public betting splits religiously now, and I’ve gotten better at spotting those “trap games.” There’s a solid breakdown of the psychology and tactics here: https://www.techbursters.com/betting-against-the-public/. That’s what I use when I want to double-check my thinking. I’m not saying fading the public is a guaranteed win (nothing is), but if you do it smartly, and look at line movement and sharp action too, it can tip the odds in your favor. The hardest part honestly is trusting the play when everyone else is screaming the opposite. But once you hit a few of those “nobody-believed-it” wins, it becomes easier to ignore the noise.